A new study from WARC predicts a 10.5% growth in global advertising spend this year to US$1.07 trillion. It would mark the best performance in six years, excluding the post-Covid recovery of 2021 (+27.9% year-on-year). Further growth is anticipated next year (+7.2%) and in 2026 (+7.0%), culminating in a global ad market worth US$1.23 trillion.

Global ad investment has more than doubled over the last decade, growing 2.8 times faster than global economic output since 2014. Three companies – Meta, Amazon and Alphabet – account for more than 70% of this incremental spend. These companies are expected to attract 43.6% of all advertising spend this year, rising to a share over 46% by 2026.

APAC is expected to be the weakest global market, with projections for ad spend to lift 2% to US$272bn, compared to an 8.6% lift (4.0% excl. political) to US$348bn in North America, 5.0% growth to $165bn in Europe, 6.2% growth to $32.1bn in Latin America and 4.2% growth to $12.6bn in MENA.

Australia’s ad market is expected to rise 2%, in a welcome change from the marginal 0.3% growth recorded in 2023.

Director of Data, Intelligence and Forecasting at WARC, James McDonald, said: "The global ad market has doubled in size over the last decade, with advertising investment growing almost three times faster than economic output since 2014. Three companies – Alphabet, Amazon and Meta – have been the largest beneficiaries from this period of expansion, attracting seven in ten incremental ad dollars over the last ten years. With retail media expected to lead ad spend growth over the coming years, and with new, diverse players emerging in ad selling – from Uber to Chase – we are once again seeing the value of first party data in targeting the right person with the right message at the right time. Such data, combined with new AI enhancements, will constitute the fabric of the advertising industry for the next decade and beyond."

"With retail media expected to lead ad spend growth over the coming years, and with new, diverse players emerging in ad selling – from Uber to Chase – we are once again seeing the value of first party data in targeting the right person with the right message at the right time. Such data, combined with new AI enhancements, will constitute the fabric of the advertising industry for the next decade and beyond," added McDonald.

Retail media (+21.3%), social media (+14.2%) and search (+12.1%) are set to lead digital growth in 2024, with these three sectors alone accounting for over 85% of online spend and almost three in every five (58.7%) incremental dollars spent on advertising worldwide this year. All are benefiting from the increased adoption of AI-driven ad services and growing appreciation of first party data.

'Pureplay' (i.e. online only) internet companies are set to record a 14.0% rise in advertising revenue this year, reaching a total of $735.7 billion. Almost nine in every ten (88.5%) incremental dollars spent on advertising this year will go to online-only businesses, with over half (52.9%) being paid to Alphabet, Amazon and Meta. All are benefiting from the increased adoption of AI-driven ad services and growing appreciation of first party data.