Adobe has released its online shopping forecast for Amazon Prime Day, predicting a record $14 billion in online sales for US retailers. The forecast is based on data from Adobe Analytics, which analyses online commerce transactions, covering over one trillion visits to US retail sites, 100 million SKUs, and 18 product categories.

Day 1 of Prime Day (July 16) is expected to drive $7.1 billion online, up 11.3 percent year-over-year (YoY). Day 2 (July 17) is expected to drive $6.9 billion online, up 9.2 percent YoY. Day 1 is also expected to be the biggest mobile shopping day of the year so far, driving $3.4 billion in online spend, and representing a 48.4 percent share compared to desktop shopping.

Discounts are expected to range between 9 percent and 22 percent off listed prices, with electronics expected to have the biggest discounts at 22 percent. Adobe expects strong 'back-to-school' spending online this year during the Prime Day event, with online spend up 80 percent from July 1-7, 2024, compared to daily sales levels in June 2024.

Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) services have driven over $39.7 billion in online spend from January 1 to June 30, 2024, up 12.1 percent YoY. Adobe expects a substantial uptick in BNPL usage during the Prime Day event, driving between $1.09 and $1.11 billion in online spend across both days.

In the year so far (January 1 to June 30, 2024) consumers have spent $502.9 billion online, growing 7.4 percent YoY. Adobe is forecasting $229.1 billion in online spend for the next three months (July 1 to September 30, 2024), which represents 7.2 percent growth YoY.

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