Leading media and advertising sector analyst Brian Wieser of Madison and Wall has unveiled a new US advertising forecast, indicating a stronger-than-anticipated trajectory for the full years of 2023 and 2024. The forecast suggests a significant degree of positive momentum in the US advertising industry, despite prevailing negative sentiment.

Wieser's forecast predicts a 5.9% underlying ad revenue growth for 2023, a notable increase from the previously projected 5.0%. Expectations for 2024 have also been revised upwards to 5.2%. This optimistic outlook is underpinned by an estimated 8.1% growth in US advertising (inclusive of directories and direct mail, but excluding political advertising) in Q3 of 2023, a significant lift from the 4.6% rise in the previous quarter.

Digital platforms are leading the charge, with an estimated growth of 14.6% in Q3, 2023, excluding political advertising. However, the forecast also suggests a deceleration in digital advertising towards a high single-digit level by 2028, with digital pure-play platforms projected to account for around 75% of the industry's total.

In contrast, traditional media platforms are experiencing a downturn. National TV advertising is estimated to have declined by approximately -3.2% during Q3 2023, and is expected to continue its descent at a low single-digit level. A growing share of this sector is being claimed by digital platforms such as Amazon and Roku.

Outdoor advertising, however, seems to be bucking the trend among traditional media, with a 3.0% increase in Q3 2023, excluding political advertising. Wieser's forecast predicts that outdoor advertising will fare better than all other traditional media. Meanwhile, audio advertising, inclusive of digital audio, was down -2.6% in 3Q23 and is expected to remain flat.

The forecast paints a bleak picture for directories and direct mail advertising, which are expected to continue their recent downward trends.