Market research industry probes election poll fail
Body for market and social research launches inquiry to find out how all of its members failed to call the election result (AMSRO).
Key points:
- All pollsters got result wrong
- AMSRO recognises risk to credibility, launches inquiry
- Will focus on sample source and sampling, interviewing methods and analysis techniques
- Report to be published in July
A big chunk of the marketing and media industry also depends on similar sampling techniques and resultant data. Where’s our inquiry? Questionable audience and ad metrics may not result in Prime Ministers being turfed every couple of years nor ultimately undermine the future of democracy, but the same applies: Investment decisions totalling billions of dollars are being made every year on the back of questionable data. Even when the numbers are proven to be impossible, it doesn't seem to make any difference, despite data-driven decision making now supposedly the cornerstone of marketing.
Some news organisations are 'pressing pause' with pollsters as a result of the election fail. A cynic might argue that if the advertising sector is anything to go by, the pollsters have little to fear. They'll be back. But it's notable that the Herald and the Age believe their own research - journalists out on the beat - delivered more accurate results. There's a lesson there.