News Analysis

The Government's new social media ban will almost certainly require young people, perhaps well into their 20s, to reauthenticate their accounts as social media firms and others caught up in the ban seek to manage their risk. And that risk comes with a hefty price - $50m potential fines. Rather than proscribing a list of banned sites, the legislation sets out criteria to define what it calls 'age-restricted social media' which in turn creates some interesting nuance. For instance, Facebook will be banned for teens and kids but Facebook Messenger is fine. Young gamers won't be happy with Discord and Twitch both caught in the net. Snap will have to adjust its 14 to 40 pitch as it gets roped in, but WhatsApp gets a leave pass. 

Seven’s AI Factory trials in which it is fast prototyping dozens of ideas and initiatives in six-week bursts is providing the first new and needed evidence that lower adloads lift viewing times and holds the younger set for longer. It is AI and personalisation the broadcaster is banking on to blitz its broadcaster rivals and streaming services in 2025 with a ramped-up 7Plus ‘digital first’ strategy for premium video on demand (VOD) and new sports rights it forecasts will lift audiences and viewing times circa 25 per cent and take six share points from Nine and Ten. It also predicts linear audiences next year will be line-ball on 2024. 

The $14bn Australian advertising sector is in unprecedented territory as huge volumes of new online video and streaming supply hits the market, just as advertiser demand declines and the tech platforms continue their marketshare romp – despite double-digit cost increases in search and social this year. Concerns about ‘unprecedented’ pressure on local media ad pricing, the surge in supply and the distorting effects of intermediaries repackaging media inventory – often at double the cost an advertiser can get direct from a publisher – has some senior industry executives drawing parallels to New Zealand’s collapsing local media market. The past year has seen New Zealand broadcast operations shuttered, newsrooms gutted and local content economics speared by Meta and Google’s march. In Australia, retailer media networks are also taking ad share – estimated this year to be as high as $1.7bn. Few would talk publicly to Mi3 about the current state of play in Australia – the underworld of tech, agency and media influence and fallout is considered too high in the current environment. But concerns are escalating, not just for the current advertising cycle but the longer term viability of Australian content businesses.