The wave of TV disruption from streamers has accelerated as they pile into ads amid flatlining subscriber growth. That means faster fragmentation of audiences and ad dollars as global platforms attack TV’s heartlands, focusing on crime and documentaries for older viewers and investing more in realty and non-scripted shows. Streamers bidding for sports rights pose sufficient threat for Disney, Fox and Warner Bros. Discovery to set aside rivalries and launch a joint platform. Ampere Analysis veteran analyst Guy Bisson thinks similar collaboration from broadcasters locally may be required – and could be good for audiences. Across the piste, Bisson breaks down where audiences are going, how much time they are spending on each channel, and where the money’s headed – with Australia ahead of the global tipping point on streaming versus TV consumption, but as yet behind in terms of TV-video ad dollar reallocation. Plus, how broadcasters can hold onto the lion's share of ad dollars and regain audiences – if they go all-in on streaming ahead of broadcast.

Paramount sales chief Rod Prosser says TV audience declines have stopped – at least so far this year. Media buyers agree. Meanwhile young audiences are growing on FAST channels, with zero marketing so far. Paramount is set to launch "a tonne more" this year and next and an ad tier "this half" – at least that's the ambition. Magnite chief Yael Milbank says live and on demand inventory through the SSP is powering – up 60-70 per cent last year – "so the audiences are there." Former SMI president Ben Tatta says better attribution, not currency wars, is key to getting better money for "way undervalued" TV – though some are yet to be convinced.

In a Chatham House rule session to the side of the Future of TV Advertising forum last week, four marketers with a combined nine-figure media budget delivered a near-brutal assessment of Australian TV networks’ future. One suggested it was likely a TV network would go pop. Another said the BVOD experience remains “so poor” due to on-going frequency capping fails on repeat ad loads. All said they were following the eyeballs into streaming platforms which are ramping up their own ad growth engines. None said outright they would favour local services because of their contribution to society. The one potential solution proffered? Combine BVOD content and audience reach to stand a better chance against the global platforms and a greater share of budget.

Regardless of whether the soft TV ad market is cyclical or structural, Dentsu Media CEO Danny Bass, GroupM CEO Aimee Buchanan and ex-Huge and Initiative global boss Mat Baxter suggest a return to major growth is highly unlikely for Australia's broadcasters. They see consolidation ahead as global streamers gear up for a bigger take and marketers focus on plugging-in data to the big stack providers. Bass thinks free-to-air TV can survive long-term but must overhaul both expectations and business model. Baxter reckons collaboration between broadcasters is their only hope of countering big tech.

Former Samsung CMO turned customer chief at Colonial First State Josh Grace and Optus consumer marketing boss Cameron Luby are down-weighting media metrics in favour of market mix modelling that ties channel investment directly to the P&L. They say investors and CFOs “don’t care” about reach and clicks, just growth and their ability to forecast ROI. The two have already used MMM to flip investment ratios and channel mix – including the role of paid media over owned channels, CRM and CX to drive retention – while Optus can now tie brand directly to sales with a 78 per cent correlation. Next Grace is working on a new MMM model with Mutinex that he thinks will “unlock a lot of purse strings” while Luby aims to embed MMM at Optus beyond marketing.

After a year of attrition over TV and video measurement, the two factions in Australia's currency battle appear more open to working together. Bosses and investment chiefs representing billions of dollars in ad spend say building a single currency together would lessen revenue leakage – pointing to out-of-home, now eating TV dollars – as the template. But they say the horse has already bolted, multiple trading currencies are inevitable and they are already building their own. Meanwhile, VOZ trading is unlikely before August as MediaOcean becomes the blockage – probably too late for the start of ads on Paramount+ – and any new currency will face exactly the same delays. If they eventually do arrive, said OzTam CEO Karen Halligan, prepare for the "shit-show" to really start. In the meantime, she's trying to build bridges. Foxtel Media boss Mark Frain insists Australia has room for alternatives – and agencies are already buying.

Foxtel Media’s provocative pledge at its Upfronts last October to lead a coalition of the digital willing to an alternative streaming and video audience currency launched officially today – without a currency. There's big names on board across streamers, YouTube, domestic broadcasters and ad buying holdcos – but some notable exceptions – and the hard work starts here.

Market rumblings are pointing to another $300m in advertising revenue leakage from free-to-air [FTA] broadcast channels in 2024. Year-on-year audience declines have triggered many advertisers and media buyers to hunt more urgently for alternatives to the analogue medium most accept is on the cusp of a historical tipping point: 70 years of audience dominance via rooftop aerials will acquiesce to internet-delivered streaming within five years – some argue three years or even less. The ongoing decline in “aerial audiences” has snapped advertisers and media buyers to attention. Their allocation collectively of $3bn to metro TV ad spending is under unprecedented pressure amid concerns that broadcaster digital channels are only replacing about half of FTA’s lost viewers. 

The heat is on total TV and video measurement and this week’s Future of TV Advertising conference will likely see the mercury rise another notch, says Nine TV sales boss Richard Hunwick. Given received marketing wisdom on the long and short of it, he thinks the industry – OzTam, TV networks, platforms and agencies – would be wise to collectively invest in the immediate future as well as the longer-term digital roadmap.

Future of TV Advertising international keynote Jon Evans is Chief Customer Officer at marketing effectiveness data firm System1 – and one of the world’s top marketing podcasters. He's on a mission to help marketers hold the line and sell-in emotional, creative campaign investment to rational, hard-nosed exec teams by better predicting its P&L impacts. While the media industry obsesses on the medium – optimising channel mix, ROI, CPMs, the value equation of the channel – fully half of the business outcome depends on the creative, i.e. the message, per System1’s analysis of 100,000 campaigns. But that message is getting lost says Evans. He wants to help CMOs avoid getting fired by arming them – and the C-suite – with the data to better predict how their ads and massive media investments will perform over the long term. Which just might counteract the accelerating rush to performance channels, with Coke the latest, as marketers seek any kind of validation in the face of exploding remits and intensifying short-term pressure. Plus, he has a toolkit for brand marketers and agencies that unpacks how to build mental availability, cut through and more predictable business results on which to base their media buys.