Market research industry probes election poll fail

Industry Contributor 27 May 2019 - 1 min read

Market research industry probes election poll fail

By Paul McIntyre - Executive Editor

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Tags: auspol, election, Ipsos, AMSRO, market research, social media, scott Morrison, advertising metrics

Body for market and social research launches inquiry to find out how all of its members failed to call the election result (AMSRO).

Key points:

All pollsters got result wrong
AMSRO recognises risk to credibility, launches inquiry
Will focus on sample source and sampling, interviewing methods and analysis techniques
Report to be published in July

A big chunk of the marketing and media industry also depends on similar sampling techniques and resultant data. Where’s our inquiry? Questionable audience and ad metrics may not result in Prime Ministers being turfed every couple of years nor ultimately undermine the future of democracy, but the same applies: Investment decisions totalling billions of dollars are being made every year on the back of questionable data. Even when the numbers are proven to be impossible, it doesn't seem to make any difference, despite data-driven decision making now supposedly the cornerstone of marketing.

Some news organisations are 'pressing pause' with pollsters as a result of the election fail. A cynic might argue that if the advertising sector is anything to go by, the pollsters have little to fear. They'll be back. But it's notable that the Herald and the Age believe their own research - journalists out on the beat - delivered more accurate results. There's a lesson there.