What you need to know:

• Despite discounting and promotions running wild this year, retailers including Freedom Furniture, David Jones and Woolworths Marketplaces are all going harder and earlier on this year’s Black Friday / Cyber Monday sales period to hoover up the spend that remains.
• Fresh Adgile data exclusive to Mi3 shows campaign activity has launched weeks ahead of last year and up to five weeks earlier than pre-Covid, with furniture and telco the first categories to pile into advertising executions.
• Question is, what are the long term impacts? Per Woolworths Marketplaces’s Ryan Gracie: “The concern is that retailers keep extending the promotional period, and it’s gone from a day to a week, to a fortnight to Black Friday month – and we’re in danger of exhausting the gravitas of the event by spreading it too thin.”
• Even with soft economic conditions persisting, various consumer reports including from ING / YouGov and the Australian Retailers Association are predicting consumers will spend more money on this year’s Black Friday sales than last year, with numbers pegging somewhere between 5 – 7 per cent: ARA forecasts total spend at $6.7 billion, up 5.6 per cent on 2023, while ING is extrapolating to $12.7bn, up from the projected $10.8bn last year.
• Yet the composition of this spend is changing. According to ING’s report, consumers will spend on everyday items as much as they will on discretionary physical goods like apparel and accessories this year.
• An earlier propensity to buy gifts – another sign of how much value consumers are seeking when they do make a purchase – is also agreed by all to be a major Blakc Friday driver.  

It feels like retailers have been on sale all year. Yet this year’s Black Friday / Cyber Monday shows no signs of slowing its ascendancy as the peak sales period for battle hardened-retailers looking to pick up extra consumer dollars in a torpid economy. With strong international brand cred and firm buy-in from consumers and retailers alike, Black Friday is increasingly pipping the traditional Boxing Day event at the post – and now everyone's going earlier than ever, for longer. This year, it's more of a month than a weekend. But long-term discounting is a dangerous game to play.

“Black Friday continues to ascend as a promotional period and it’s vitally important to generating sales across the Woolworths MarketPlus portfolio of marketplaces,” Woolworths MarketPlace CMO, Ryan Gracie, tells Mi3. The group includes four marketplaces: Big W Market, MyDeal, Everyday Rewards Shop and Everyday Market on Woolworths.

“The concern is that retailers keep extending the promotional period, and it’s gone from a day to a week, to a fortnight to Black Friday month – and we’re in danger of exhausting the gravitas of the event by spreading it too thin,” Gracie says. “Customers can suffer from promotional fatigue and discounts become less deep and less appealing.”

Such fear hasn’t stopped the retail market campaigning, however. According to Adgile Media campaign data covering linear TV, Foxtel, BVDO and YouTube channels, Black Friday activity has been hitting screens earlier than ever. Furniture and telecommunications led the campaigning five weeks ahead of when they kicked off five years ago, and at least two weeks earlier than in 2023. Slightly less quick but still keen are the auto parts and accessories, discount retail, and office and business retailer categories, which began campaigning from week 45 – one week earlier than last year and two weeks earlier when compared to 2022.

NordVPN launched its Black Friday campaign on Sunday 20 October, while Amart Furniture quickly followed with its ‘Why wait Black Friday deals’ on 22 October... followed by a ‘Black Friday Sale’ on 5 November – week 45.

Betting on black

Data suggests all screen-based channels are being used in similar ways, although the jury is out on whether more budget is going into these Black Friday campaigns just yet. Adgile’s data includes 160 retailers, all of which have run Black Friday campaigns at least once in the past eight years. Notably, 30 per cent of brands running campaigns in 2024 did not run in 2023.

“The early days of Black Friday provided advertisers with a valuable opportunity to escape the pre-Christmas clutter and pull sales forward. Our data reveals that challenger brands, in particular, seized this chance to stand out and capture additional market share during a less competitive period – creating an easier space to differentiate and boost share of voice [SOV]. And it worked. Black Friday quickly became, and remains, a monumental retail success,” says Adgile chief commercial officer, Richard Hunwick.

In addition, Adgile data indicates big national retailers, which now account for the majority of Black Friday campaigns, only really jumped on the bandwagon in large volumes in 2022. Adgile anticipates upwards of 70 large retailers will participate in Black Friday campaigning this year.

“Black Friday has become a major tentpole event for retailers and consumers, and it’s definitely no different for Freedom as big ticket, discretionary purchases fight for their fare share of consumer dollars against other competing purchase priorities,” says Freedom Furniture GM of marketing, Jason Piggott.

“For Freedom, Black Friday isn’t just a day or weekend event, it’s a whole month of lead-in activity to prime customers and ensure they have something they love from us on their lists to purchase. It’s equally about ensuring we deliver our commercial sales targets over this period.”

Freedom isn’t just pulling discount levers, although ‘up to 30 per cent off’ is splashed across its website. Piggot cites exclusive product, free deliveries, interest-free offers, in-stock and ready to deliver as key tactics. “In saying that, undoubtedly 2024 will be characterised with awesome deals across the retail landscape that will make consumers the big winners,” he says.

An encouraging sign is strong sales momentum from June sales onwards. It’s led Freedom to take an "extremely positive posture” on the Black Friday period.

“This has been supported by robust store and online traffic over the past 2-3 weeks as consumers do their research and start preparing their shopping lists for this spending frenzy,” Piggott adds.

DJs: Discounts = acquisition

David Jones CMO James Holloman says the department store sees a more than 100 per cent increase in sales during this key retail event period. He’s expecting increased interest again this Black Friday with great value offers ahead of Christmas, noting that even with cost-of-living challenges and high interest rates, people are still spending on others.

“For our customers, this is the moment to shop for exceptional value, with over 400 offers available across all departments including a number of exclusive offers only available at David Jones – an increase from last year – and we will also offer deeper discounts and increase the offer period,” Holloman says.

There is no doubt in Holloman’s mind customers are more discerning when it comes to discretionary spend this year. It’s why the department store is focusing on driving the salience of offers and position itself as a trusted brand. There are definitely big discount numbers across its ecommerce site too – up to 30 per cent off fashion, shoes and accessories, up to 40 per cent off suitcases and lingerie, and up to 55 per cent off beds.  

“As a premium department store retailer, we offer incredible deals across departments such as fashion, beauty, homewares and small appliances and we carefully consider the customer journey and channel mix for key customer segments,” Holloman continues. “We also see our customer count triple during this period as we welcome many new customers to David Jones.”

Cannibalisation effects

It's this kind of logic seeing major players across categories incorporating their own promotional activity under the Black Friday umbrella in late November, says Hunwick. And it’s taking its toll on the traditional late December sales period. According to the ABS, this strategic shift led to a 1.6 per cent increase in retail sales in November last year but caused a 2.7 per cent decline in December sales.

In its first Consumer Confidence Report citing ABS Data and its own research, Future Publishing found 50 per cent of Australians are planning to participate in this year’s Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales, against 32 per cent for the Boxing Day sales.

It’s also indicative of a broader shift towards starting holiday shopping earlier – something noted by the Australian Retailers Association and Roy Morgan in consumer panel data released in early November. Per Future’s data, 60 per cent of Australians were reported to be getting a jumpstart on their Christmas shopping.

“Black Friday’s rise to the top of the sales calendar signals a new era in Australian retail,” says Future Publishing Australia commercial director for APAC, Chris Ferguson. “Consumers are increasingly drawn to the prospect of early savings and the convenience of online shopping, so retailers anticipate and accept this new reality to capture their share of the market.”

Influencer early birds

Boxing Day’s waning popularity against the lure of Black Friday is a trend reflected in influencer activity. Hypetap Intelligence data shows there’s been a shift away from mentions of Boxing Day sales year-on-year (-10 per cent) as Black Friday mentions rise (+20 per cent). The quest to get in earlier and earlier is reflected in influence behaviour too: In 2021, posts began to appear in late November, but by 2023, several influencers were mentioning the Black Friday event in September.

Brand primes challenger demand

It’s not just big players pushing an earlier Black Friday promotional period.

“Today, with pre-Christmas sales firmly rooted in late November, challenger brands are moving their campaigns even earlier to find clear space and maintain their edge. Remarkably, Black Friday activity now starts as early as October,” says Hunwick. “If this trend persists, could this gradual shift create a new, untapped pre-Christmas window for an innovative player to claim and capitalise on?“

Another observation made by Adgile director of consumer insights, Stu Carr, is the double-whammy play of brand and lower-funnel activity in advertising executions leading into Black Friday. In the year to date for example, there’s been an 11 per cent year-on-year increase in TV campaigns for brand-building compared to sales activation ads, he points out.

“This defies the widespread industry narrative of a shift from upper- to lower-funnel advertising, which is often drawn solely from spend-based channel data rather than also considering the context of creative content,” says Carr.

“At the pointy end, sales activation campaigns are being worked harder during key promotional windows, with Black Friday being no exception. So far this year, 30 per cent of brands running Black Friday campaigns are new entrants compared to last year, with many challenger brands launching earlier to gain a first-mover advantage and build momentum before major retailers dominate the space.

“All in all, it’s not about choosing between brand-building and sales activation – it’s about getting better both at both when it matters: Laying a strong brand foundation while driving sharper, more effective activation at critical moments.”

For Freedom Furniture's Piggott, there’s a balancing act between brand building attributes and retail offers to get customers to shop now, this year.

“With the backdrop of a constrained consumer environment, our focus is skewed towards ensuring our message around our Black Friday offers lands with our customers, and then delivering this at scale to our audience with our channel plan, with a fore focus on screens and outdoor to build awareness. We’re also using an attention channel like Australian Traffic Network to deliver reach at scale and some agility if required in the lead-in to the Black Friday weekend,” he says.  

Discount scramble v CX

Given the size and scale of Black Friday, Piggott says it’s important to keep the campaign creative, media channel selection and offer “fresh and compelling to maximise your results”.

“But it’s equally important to focus on the customer experience over this period,” he warns. “Writing a huge sales number is one thing, but what about the experience, how was your store presented, did you have enough staff to service customers and the volume of customers? Have you considered how you are going to keep them engaged while they are waiting to be served, to pay? And how do you keep your store teams up and on top of their game across the Black Friday weekend?”

Over on his pure-play marketplaces, Woolworth's Gracie cites a similar channel strategy running to last year with varying messages by business. “It’s an arduous task merchandising four banners, we need to ensure we surface the right deals for the right audiences, each of them having various shopping missions,” he comments.

“Customer expectations continue to evolve, competition is forcing all of us to be better, which is great. We are very confident that as a portfolio business we are in great shape, we have the right proposition and offer great value for our customers. They love and trust our brands and they will come to us to shop this Black Friday / Cyber Monday.”

Old school new tool?

Not everyone is quite so enamoured. Speaking to Mi3 about its SMS marketing strategy back in September, Designstuff content and campaigns specialist, Matthew Harrison, saw Covid as such an outlier in terms of results, and the current economic climate so significant, it’s skewed perception going forward including around Black Friday / Cyber Monday as an opportunity.

“Every year we get more hesitant – you don’t put all your eggs in that basket. But I’d like to be optimistic,” Harrison said. “With the right strategies, it’s also about leaning in on what we have learned since last October, particularly with SMS and how to utilise that in coming into Black Friday. Prior to this last year, we didn’t have an SMS strategy. I’d like to think SMS is a new tool to throw towards this. This year is being predicted to be not as big, but maybe with SMS to beef things up we’ll see a strong season.”

Consumer signs of the times

As to consumer sentiment around Black Friday, pulse-checks by ING/YouGov, Roy Morgan/Australian Retailers Association, Shopify/Sapio Research, Nielsen, Shopfully and GoDaddy/YouGov all point to consumer appetite holding and a projected boost in sales for retailers. That’s even if what consumers buy – and the amount they spend – has been recalibrated this year.

According to ING’s latest consumer report undertaken with YouGov, it’s the everyday items Australian consumers are planning to spend more on this Black Friday, with $675 million earmarked for daily household essentials. This is up 10 per cent year-on-year and averages out to $184 per shopper. Top-of-the-list items include toilet paper, sponges and dishwashing tablets.

Overall, the survey of more than 1,000 shoppers nationally found 58 per cent of Aussies – about 11.5m – are planning to take advantage of Black Friday this year, up 17 per cent since 2020, although 93 per cent admitted the cost of living has impacted how much they plan to spend during this period. Even so, ING’s report estimated $12.7 billion would be spent on the sales nationally, across all categories, up from the projected $10.8 billion last year. This is also despite 32 per cent of respondents not planning to shop in the sales this year because they are budgeting or saving for other things, with millennials the most likely (44 per cent).

“Look at retail trade generally and the year retail has had: If you look at clothing, footwear and accessories, which is generally typical of what Black Friday is famous for, it’s really been sidestepped since 2022, frankly,” ING head of marketing and insights Matt Bowen tells Mi3. “Retailers have had a very difficult year to generate sales, and it’s been confirmed in a lot of the major retailer announcements of financial earnings as well. JB Hi-fi said earlier this year that unless something is on sale, it isn’t moving off the shelf. Similarly with Myer, there have been updates to market that the only products they’re selling at the moment are when they’re heavily discounted. Nick Scali’s report to market was similar as well on shopping trade volumes from August.

“So the consumer trend we’re seeing at the moment is 'we will purchase, but only when things are heavily discounted'. From a retail perspective, it means the volumes of retail trade have not shifted dramatically at all.”

Bowen’s observation was echoed in a presentation by ASB chief economist, Nick Tuffey, at least week’s Circana State of the Industry virtual event. The industry expert pointed to a paring back of spending on physical goods in both Australia and New Zealand over the last couple of years.

“Probably the best way to sum up spending choices over the last couple of years in Australia and New Zealand has been that we've been sitting there in the supermarket arguing over whether to buy just the supermarket brand of baked beans or the more posh can of baked beans, while we've been wearing last year's fashion items for clothing but still been saving up lots of money to go and see Taylor Swift concerts and the like,” Tuffey told attendees.  

“What we have seen is continued recovery in services. These are getting back onto the trend line they would have been on [prior to Covid]. That’s where we've tended to see people prioritising this kind of discretionary spending, even as financial pressures have increased.

“Take things like travel, and being able to travel again after borders have been closed, going out spending on entertainment and other things. Even under a bit of budget pressure, it's that sort of experience spending that has taken priority in Australia as we've wound back on other types of spending.”

ING’s latest research also shows people wanting to spend during sales periods to maximise their budget and stretch their dollar further for everyday items.

“Whereas last year we were pulling back on discretionary purchases and those patterns were down, we were waiting on the sales period to get those bigger-ticket items and only considering them when they were heavily discounted. Now the budget challenge is so pervasive, we’re looking to purchase everyday items like dishwashing tablets when they’re on sales as well to maximise every dollar we spend,” says Bowen.

Not just dishwasher tabs

Where Black Friday has the cut through to make things happen is its brand credibility, says Bowen. “It’s likely to be the time where you’re getting maximum sales across a wide range of retailers, whether it’s fashion, everyday essentials, furniture or technology. The perception of Black Friday is it’s the time to maximise your purchasing power. That’s why it has that appeal and there’s that appetite,” he says.

“While we see that slight change in composition, there are still good volumes of people shopping for those other categories, being clothing, jewellery, appliances, furniture and stuff like that.”

Offshore ecom

Anecdotally, Bowen also notes the early arrival of Black Friday campaigns and promotions. “Email inboxes have been flooded with Black Friday deals from a lot of retailers already, so it feels retailers have pulled the trigger early, in an attempt to secure that dollar as quick as possible, as opposed to waiting for the day itself.”

It’s not surprising to Bowen given Black Friday’s huge global appeal. “That carries a lot of strength – it’s not just the Westfields of this world or physical retail shopfronts. More and more people are shopping internationally, and buying from international retailers. What impact that has locally I’m not sure, but certainly one thing we’re monitoring is how and where people are incurring international purchase fees because some of those savings disappear at the checkout if you’re not using the right bank cards.”

Spend still increasing

The latest Roy Morgan / ARA data on Black Friday sales is more conservative than that of ING, suggesting a total of $6.7 billion would be spent in what has historically been a four-day Black Friday / Cyber Monday sales period, up 5.6 per cent on 2023. Nevertheless, this data suggests overall peak season spending will hit $69.7 billion, up 2.7 per cent year-on-year. It’s welcome news to ARA chief industry affairs officer, Fleur Brown.

“Australians are flocking to Black Friday / Cyber Monday in record numbers this year, with shoppers ready to shell out $6.7 billion over the four-day event,” she says. “Our research shows one in four shoppers will be using this sales event to save money on Christmas gifts, highlighting that while Australians are being more cautious with their spending, they also want to embrace the festive season and spoil their loved ones. 

“Many retailers are already promoting the sales in anticipation of the shopping blitz. There’s no doubt that Black Friday / Cyber Monday will be an integral part of this year’s six-week peak season trading period where retailers look forward to making up to two thirds of their annual profit.”

Christmas comes early

Over at Shopfully, the Black Friday participation figures are also higher – albeit at 39.3 per cent versus 32.4 per cent year-on-year. This report also shows an uptick in shoppers using the sales for everyday purchases (52.98 per cent).

Yet both ING/YouGov and Shopfully reports show Christmas present shopping is high on the agenda for Black Friday shoppers. In the ING report, 49 per cent of shoppers said they are planning to use sales to buy their Christmas presents, with $297 the average budget. In Shopfully’s data, 47 per cent are planning to splurge on Christmas gifts, and Shopify pegged the percentage of consumers shopping for gifts this Black Friday at 49 per cent.

Influencers are in on this act, with Hypetap data showing a 60 per cent lift in captions featuring both ‘Black Friday’ and ‘gift’ over the last two years.

Small buys online, big buys in-store

Other notable insights from Shopfully and Shopify is a decidedly stronger omnichannel flavour to this year’s Black Friday event. Shopfully data reports  52.74 per cent are balancing both online and in-store options to compare and secure the best deals, while Shopify reports 38 per cent are splitting their shopping online and offline evenly, 31 per cent will shop in-store only, and 29 per cent only online. Notably, 63 per cent are planning to buy small things online but go into stores for larger purchases, and 66 per cent are searching for items online then going in-store to get them.

Shopfully reported 30 per cent are planning to spend under $200, while 28 per cent plan to spend $200-$500. The ratio of those expected to spend over $500 was down significantly from 33.4 per cent to just 13.1 per cent.

Shopify also notes 39 per cent of Australians it surveyed had signed up to brand updates to get the best deals this Black Friday / Cyber Monday, rising to 65 per cent of those planning to spend at least $430; 57 per cent of those aged 25-34; and 56 per cent of parents with kids living at home.