What you need to know:

• Delayed new Ipsos measurement currency in market by year-end, per IAB Australia CEO, Gai Le Roy.
• Nielsen using the delay to hurt rival, aggressively signing up independent publishers to new 12-month contracts after losing IAB endorsement to Ipsos last year.
• Potential for two-metric economy as a result, though some larger publishers remain too angry with Nielsen for not fixing its “broken” ratings currency in Australia much sooner.
• Agencies not committed to Ipsos – but most holdcos will shift to the IAB’s preferred metric after it comes to market, said Le Roy.
• Omnicom Media Group investment boss Kristiaan Kroon said the holdco will not make a group decision, leaving agency brands to choose between Nielsen and Ipsos.
• Kroon warned if currency not in market until January, agencies are unlikely to implement until March, given the early year workload.
• Independent publishers say they need a cheaper tier from Ipsos – but won’t use Iris either way unless agencies demand it.

Ongoing delays to the new IAB-endorsed online measurement system from Ipsos have seen Nielsen seize the initiative, re-signing contracts with publishers in a bid to create a two-system market in Australia. But IAB CEO Gai Le Roy said the hybrid Iris system will be in market by the year-end with almost all major publishers committed. Board members, she said, are not for turning.

The key question now is whether agencies will also switch to Ipsos’ numbers, given the workload involved, and whether publishers will commit beyond IAB big hitters, of which all bar Yahoo and Facebook are signed up. For now, mid-tier independents are re-signing contracts with Nielsen, which has a new methodology in market and existential incentive to offer favourable terms.

Ips and buts

Ipsos was awarded a 10-year contract by the IAB last year after ongoing problems with Nielsen’s numbers that left publishers seething – with some reporting inaccuracies of up to 45 per cent, and resulting loss of revenue – leading the IAB to ditch its decade-long partner.

The plan was to have the hybrid Ipsos Iris system – which uses panels and tags in a bid to deliver cross-media measurement and unduplicated reach – in market by June 2022, with subsequent talk of major delays rubbished by Le Roy.

Some large publishers told Mi3 that Ipsos had recently committed to launch by mid-November, but may now be building additional contingency and hedging bets by tabling a late 2022/early 2023 launch.

Either way there has been no IAB-endorsed unique audience measurement in market for two years. Publishers can show advertisers IAB-approved volume metrics such as clicks and session times, but not approved UA figures, something of a concern for a multibillion dollar industry that buys audiences for advertisers and prides itself on being data-driven.

Nielsen makes hay

Nielsen has seized the initiative to go aggressively into market and re-sign publishers – and despite significant residual bad will, due to Nielsen’s well documented “broken” currency, many publishers outside of the top tier are signing new 12-month contracts, even some that have also signed up for Ipsos,

The larger publishers, however, are keen to avoid paying for two currencies. Even though they are not committed to paying Ipsos until its currency is in market, for some, there is too much bad blood to contemplate going back to Nielsen even in the interim.

“The DCR [Digital Content Ratings] measurement is hugely important for us and it was broken for nearly a year before we ditched it,” said one exec. “Nielsen could not commit to fixing it in Australia. If they had, it would have been different. We will not be using both.” They said Ipsos and the IAB had been “far too ambitious in the first place” in trying to squeeze development and launch into 12 months, and “expectations could have been managed better.”

That said, “There’s nothing sinister in the delay, no underlying issue, it’s just doing these things properly takes far longer than even conservative estimates might suggest. We’re at the point now where we will see [Iris launch] late this year or early next. Everyone is pretty much ready to go.”

Indies: No dice

Smaller publishers hold a less optimistic view. “It’s a total mess,” said one publishing boss. “It’s late, it’s materially more expensive and none of the agencies have said they are adopting it yet. The reason we signed up with Nielsen years ago is because the agencies demanded it. Until there is a need from agencies – and none of them seem to have a view on it – Ipsos is a moot point.”

He added: “The IAB can say what they like. When agencies are demanding it, that’s when we will do it.”

In the meantime, said the publisher, “we’ve just signed a 12-month deal with Nielsen, who are telling everybody in market that Ipsos is promising things they cannot deliver – like a unique audience number that actually makes sense. If it were up to us, we’d use nobody. But if agencies demand it, that’s what we have to go with. To date, I’ve heard nothing from any of them about Ipsos. You have to ask, why aren’t agencies interested?”

Other independent publishers backed that view. One was brave enough to go on record – Man of Many, the first publisher in Australia, independent or otherwise, to sign a contract with Ipsos for Iris. Co-founder Scott Purcell said it had secured an early – and thought to be favourable – deal is because the publisher positions itself around “trust and transparency”. But it also had issues with Nielsen, “they were under-reporting our traffic by 40 per cent”, after Google’s changes to AMP (accelerated mobile pages, now a key part of an antitrust case in which Google is alleged to have colluded with Facebook to kill off header bidding, but that’s another story).

“It was very frustrating, our competitors were quoting those inaccurate figures on social media and it was a constant battle to negotiate with Nielsen. So we decided to leave Nielsen in March 2021.”

Purcell said the early Ipsos numbers are by no means perfect. “They are a bit lower than we are seeing from our own internal numbers – but they are moving in the right direction and Ipsos has been very good to work with.”

But because of the delay, and despite previous failures, Man of Many has just signed another 12-month contract with Nielsen.

“We don’t have AMP pages any more – it was essentially an SEO thing that Google was pushing quite heavily and giving preferential treatment to AMP pages. But they are no longer doing that, so we have signed back up with Nielsen this month.”

Purcell agreed agencies are not talking about Ipsos and for now, many buyers and sellers remain wedded to Nielsen. Could that lead to a two-metric economy, with publishers and agencies using both unendorsed Nielsen and endorsed Ipsos numbers?

“Time will tell,” said Purcell. “Once agencies have the Ipsos numbers, they may well decide to use the IAB-preferred provider. But until that point, people are going to stay with Nielsen. The publishers won’t switch until they are forced to do so by agencies.”

Holdco view

Holdcos are hanging out for the year-end while bracing for similar measurement overhauls in TV and out of home in 2023 and 2024. Some told Mi3 they will consider Ipsos when it is directly in front of them. If Ipsos isn’t in market by the year-end, per some execs, it risks blowing out into March as industry shuts down for Christmas before spending February onwards clearing the immediate rolling workload.

“That additional delay would not help us or our clients,” said Omnicom Media Group investment boss Kristiaan Kroon. Either way, agencies need to see the product and run the rule before committing, “and we are engaged with Ipsos in that process”, he added.

“But we have worked with Nielsen for a number of years, they have been a good partner, and we will continue to do so.”

Does that mean Australia could see two currencies running in parallel for the foreseeable future? Kroon implied that could be the case in the short term, potentially longer.

“We’re not going to engage in a prolonged period of using two sources to measure the same thing – that leads to paralysis by analysis and confused outcomes,” said Kroon. “But our agencies and brands will choose [to go with either Nielsen or Ipsos]. We won’t make a decision at group level.”

Kroon said the TV and out of home industry industry bodies should heed the blowback presented by measurement vacuums.

“Huge blowouts in timings quickly erode confidence, which leads to questions around dual running and dual products, which ultimately is really inefficient for industry. Getting those timelines right needs to be a focus, given what’s in front of us.”

Another holdco investment boss said the group was “working through due diligence” on Ipsos, but as yet had not seen much to work with. They expected to see product in either December or January and did not expect a two-currency economy in the medium-term.

“The reality is, very few people can pay for two, and there will only be one endorsed methodology. It would be less than ideal to have both in play.”

IAB: Ipsos or bust

IAB Australia CEO Gai Le Roy told Mi3 that the Ipsos currency would be in market “this year … it’s very close.” She said there had been no roll-back of scope or functionality, that almost all major publishers are onboard and that agencies would follow once Iris is in market. The online data – apps and websites – will then be followed by OzTam and CTV data “in early 2023,” per Le Roy.

Le Roy claimed that more firms are preparing to sign on to Ipsos beyond IAB board members and that smaller publishers, up to a certain panel threshold, would be included in the Iris numbers either way. “But if they are tagged it will give them a more robust and stable measurement.”

It is thought circa 25 publishers will be onboard for launch and Le Roy said it was unlikely the major groups would run both Nielsen and Ipsos data. “That is not the message I’m getting. We’re doing a lot of parallel testing.”

Publisher commitments are underwriting Iris, though nobody pays until the product is in market. Le Roy could not disclose terms of the contract, “but basically, once it is currency then [commercials] will kick in.”

Empire strikes back

Asked if the IAB and Ipsos could have better communicated delays, Le Roy took criticism on the chin, before donning a velvet glove.

“We’re disappointed not to be able to get out earlier in the year, but it is critical to do this correctly. There is a lot of investment riding on these numbers, so in that sense, we are okay with the delay if the tradeoff is getting it right – and everyone is still committed,” said Le Roy.

“In terms of communications, the people involved have been kept abreast directly," she added. "We’d rather take that approach than communicate via the trade media.”​​​​