What you need to know:

• Cross-media measurement a fundamental marketing challenge amid ongoing fragmentation and privacy headwinds, per GroupM Global CEO Christian Juhl.
• He thinks rivals may regret spending billions on cookie and personally identifiable information-based businesses but “feels good” about GroupM’s compliance ahead of incoming privacy regulation.
• But those changes require a tonne of work stitching together multiple proxy metrics and variables – probably the biggest challenge facing comms holdcos.
• GroupM globally and locally building “full funnel models” that go beyond performance metrics, per Juhl and ANZ CEO, Aimee Buchanan.
• While Uber’s APAC marketing chief last month said the brand was putting attention at the heart of media planning, Juhl said attention is just one aspect. Brands will need more – and that reach and frequency will still have a place.
• But Juhl questions how long advertisers will put up with “incredible inflation” in linear TV, and “paying more for less”.
• He sees major opportunity for Netflix to push into brand integration – and thinks it will recover from an underwhelming ad market entrance.
• Juhl and Buchanan outline some progress on carbon metrics. But both say they can “only advise” clients on how to spend their money. Juhl however claimed some brands have moved spend based on carbon footprint – and all clients are asking about it.
• Globally Juhl would like to see staff back in the office three days a week minimum, ideally more. But he said there will be no hard mandate. Buchanan said the Australian operation has organically landed at three days a week on average. But that there’s too much focus on a “magic number”.
• Two years into a major rebuild at GroupM ANZ, Juhl gives Buchanan a high score on the report card, but says there’s always more. Buchanan says GroupM’s overhaul should not be understated. But she’s not planning to take her foot off the gas any time soon.

Measurement or bust

Pretty much everything in marketing and the media supply chain comes down to measurement, says Juhl. With the fragmentation of traditional media and mass reach accelerating, and privacy regimes signalling the death knell of digital tracking, that challenge is compounded.

“We're about US$60 billion terms of global investment, and in every major market around the world. So when you're looking at clients, and you're looking at the industry side, we're seeing this incredible inflationary pressure on linear television. What does that mean? How long does that continue to go on, where [advertisers are] essentially paying more for less? How do we think about audience fragmentation across that and all these new formats that are coming out – and how does that get effectively priced? And all of that comes down to measurement and how do we think about getting some level of universal measurement across these things?”

GroupM ANZ CEO Aimee Buchanan says that has moved measurement “beyond just a channel play” and away from the bottom of the funnel, i.e. performance metrics, towards newer “full funnel” measurement models. 

“Most of the traditional econometric models were built on quite short-term metrics. And I think what we're seeing increasingly is that's not enough to understand the longer term brand impact of some of the work that we're doing with consumers. So the way that we're building those models, and the variables that we're taking in, the datasets we're looking, at has shifted – and I think we are seeing and hearing quite a lot of noise in market around that.

Does that mean market mix modelling is part of the solution?

“Market mix model, econometric model, full funnel model, they're all derivatives of each other,” says Buchanan. “It has to evolve for where we are heading. We can't continue just to look at the short-term metrics of campaigns.”

Juhl says the same applies globally – because marketers can’t otherwise defend let alone increase investment.

“Everybody is looking at how do we think about full funnel measurement [across media] and all the way through to loyalty and everything else,” per Juhl.

“For marketers earning their place in the boardroom, justifying these massive budgets to their CEOs, it all comes down to measurement. And so everything is on the table.”

Privacy ramifications incoming

With privacy in regulatory crosshairs and therefore a looming compliance issue for brands, the measurement challenge is becoming more urgent, forcing the media supply chain to accelerate new model development. Juhl admits its hard work.

“It's complex math and you're trying to pick up signals. In some cases, they're very discreet and that's easier to do. In some cases, they're very vague, and [media agencies are] trying to create proxies for what those signals are going to be and proxies for measurement and then importing them into data models so that you can do forecasts and how budgets shift on a global basis based upon propensity for whatever your KPI is going to be. That's most exciting part of our business,” he says. “But it's also probably the most dynamic and where we're constantly hiring talent and looking for folks is in these particular areas.”

But Juhl thinks GroupM may be in a better position that some of its global holding company peers as the US, along with Europe, the UK and Australia start to move seriously on privacy.

“We didn't go out and spend billions of dollars on cookie-based solutions or PII data as some of our competitors have done. We've taken a future-facing view towards this, to say we're going to look at things that are privacy compliant.

He suggests others may be feeling nervous.

“Some [businesses] are sitting on the razor's edge of whether they're going to be compliant or not, depending on what happens [where regulation lands]. So I feel good about the position GroupM and WPP is in. But I think it will definitely have ramifications for the industry.”

Buchanan likewise is comfortable about GroupM’s privacy position locally as the ACCC and Attorney General dovetail on regulating the digital economy and privacy laws simultaneously.

“I feel good about where we are,” she says. “I think if you'd asked me two years ago, I was probably sitting here thinking ‘how are we going to navigate this?’”

Attention ‘not everything’

While Uber’s APAC marketing boss Andy Morley said at SXSW Sydney last month that the platform is putting attention at the centre of its media planning, Juhl suggested brands must increasingly pull together a patchwork of metrics – and those that hit on the right combinations, or “secret” metrics will drive competitive advantage when it comes to the rates they pay publishers.

“Uber's looking at attention metrics … but we're just going to have to look at all of them. Every metric is going to be a proxy for something else until we can get to a true universal measurement element,” says Juhl.

“Cookies are changing, we know data is changing, everybody's looking for some sort of proxy for success. We work with Uber and we're working with them on what that attention metric might be. But it's not going to be just that.”

“If we want to sell against attention, let's counter that with viewability, or reach or conversions or brand lift points or any of the other things that we're going to look at to kind of create a full picture of measurement.”

The goal is can you pick three or four different success points in your campaigns to create your variable and then optimise against that variable? And when that's your variable, then you can find undervalued points of media that help drive success on that particular variable that maybe your competitors can't find,” says Juhl.

“So I wouldn't get hung up on what Uber's is doing, or what another brands is doing. I think every client has to to find what their variable is and what's going to go against that.”

Does that mean reach and frequency is becoming increasingly anachronistic?

“No,” says Juhl. “It's still really important … Ultimately, you are in a reach game … But I think when you want to get into personalisation, and how do you really connect with consumers, it's that full-layered effect [of a basket of metrics]. But certainly when you look at big cultural moments, we want to look at reach and we want to look at frequency and try and figure out what those optimal mixes are.”

Get that right across media, says Juhl, “and maybe [advertisers] are realising the measurement is every bit as important as negotiation, or rates.”

Carbon metrics challenge

One metric that GroupM has been more vocal about than holdco rivals is sustainability, or more accurately, carbon. Juhl two years ago told Mi3 that that GroupM would recommend clients don’t spend with climate laggards within the media supply chain. Globally the firm has hammered home the point, stating that brands and their intermediaries have to be “prepared to move money” to drive decarbonisation. Locally, the firm has backed-up that rhetoric, last year telling publishers that a significant chunk of advertisers will likely be making carbon-based investment decisions within 12-24 months.

Juhl wouldn’t be drawn on how much money has actually shifted based on a campaign or channel’s carbon footprint and reiterated that ultimately, only brands themselves can make that call.

“It's their money. All we do is advise … but many of them taken us up on that, and we have moved money,” says Juhl.

“I have a significant amount of customers that are looking at that, and we’re seeing RFPs coming through where customers are asking, what's the carbon footprint of that plan? Can you help us look at how we manage that? How scientific is your method? How verifiable is this? So it's a core part of our business,” he adds. “I would say almost every one of our clients are at least asking the questions right now.”

Buchanan echoes that view. Like Brian O’Kelley, the founder of Scope3, with whom GroupM is working on decarbonising advertising, she sees the “low hanging fruit” in cutting out overlap within the supply chain, and especially “activity that doesn’t drive high performance that has high emissions”, says Buchanan. “So understanding that removing that out of the ecosystem is good for business and good for the environment should happen." (O’Kelley is more explicit about what that entails: Stop buying “crap” ads that “no human sees”, ditch “gamed” viewability metrics and instead buy on attention, never buy another outstream video ad and cull the bloated programmatic supply chain, he told Mi3 earlier this year.)

Either way, Buchanan says GroupM ANZ’s digital sustainability initiative is finding ways to significant carbon reductions – up to 40 per cent – just through tweaking an ad’s digital weight, i.e. file sizes, without compromising on quality. “We’re rolling that practice out and clients want to go on that journey,” per Buchanan. “I haven’t had a client not want to have that conversation.”

Netflix: integration when?

Netflix’s foray into the ad market has underwhelmed – and Amazon entering the market with Prime along with Paramount+ will add competition. But Juhl thinks the Netflix will ultimately come good – if it can try do something other than try and copy a legacy TV model. He says that has been GroupM’s message to Netflix from the get go.

“We sat down with Netflix in the early days and said ‘Okay, you're going to move into advertising, you know household [level] data, you know the individuals who are watching, what's the opportunity to do something different that hasn't been done yet?’ And sometimes they take you up on that, sometimes they don't,” says Juhl.

“I think they wanted to get to market quickly. They did a deal with Microsoft at the same time tried to build their own team … I've every confidence, they'll figure it out … Netflix is a very innovative company altogether. They've always been willing to break the model, try something new, reinvent themselves, tear up the playbook and start over. And I think in advertising, there's that opportunity,” he adds.

“You look at basically the largest streaming platform in the world, and how do we think about what advertising could be, how do we think about creating content, how do we think about integrating brands? And I think it's wide open in that sense.”

Everyone back in the office?

Businesses across the economy are grappling with getting staff back in the office post-pandemic. While some are issuing hard rules, Juhl says GroupM won’t take that approach. But he would like to see more of its 43,000 staff in the building more often.

“I certainly don't see us mandating a five day a week return to office … But I do believe that we probably need to be in the office more than we are right now,” he says, citing culture, development and collaborative environments driving sharper results.

“That is a powerful thing for everybody and I want everybody to have that opportunity. So we have to look at the balance of how do we create opportunity for folks [to work] on remote when they need it and support their families … I live in San Francisco [where GroupM does not have an office] and for me, being able to work remotely has been a real gift during this time period … And we need to embrace those sort of hybrid solutions that allow our workforce to be effective. But we also need to get people back in and collaborate and learn and be together.”

So what’s the upshot?

“I'd like to see people the office three days a week at a minimum. From there, we can look at what works. And I'd like it to become such a great environment for collaboration and learning and client interactions that, you know, people show up five days a week.”

Three days a week on average is where GroupM has organically landed in Australia, says Buchanan. But she thinks there is too much time spent on “days, and trying to get to a magic number”.

“I want to put my kids to bed at night and I leave at a certain time to do that. But we work in a business and I need to ebb and flow with that as the business needs. I think in being transparent and giving people their own voice in that at a team level and at an individual level and at a business level, we avoided some of the need to mandate,” says Buchanan. “For me, it's less about the days and more about defining what the business need is and trying to balance that with the individual’s desire.”

Juhl’s Buchanan scorecard

While Buchanan knew the scale of the turnaround she took on when accepting the top ANZ gig two years ago – and said global HQ was in no doubt of the challenge she faced – the merging of Essence and MediaCom threw another big integration into the mix. And GroupM did lose some big clients.

But heading into 2024, Juhl says the Australian business is in “great” shape and suggested its growth outweighs the losses.

“Aimee’s done a fabulous job. It's been a remarkable few years for us here in the marketplace. We've grown our sales significantly, we've won Unilever recently, we retained the Uber business here in APAC, we retained the Mitsubishi business, we retained the Nike business, and there's a lot of growth in the existing clients … There's a lot of new leadership in the marketplace and I think they have really rejuvenated the brand.”

That sounds like higher than a B+ on the scorecard? “Yes, it is,” says Juhl. “But there is always more.”

Buchanan doesn't need to be told.

“There is no complacency here. I don’t think that we’re ever ‘done’ and I’ll never be sitting here fully satisfied. But I think we've done a lot of good things … It was a big job to undertake the transformation that's been happening in this business for the last two or three years … And I'm really proud of the team for the work that they've done to get us where we are today.”

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