What you need to know:

• Hoyts CEO Damian Keogh went to Margot Robbie’s early publicity tours for Barbie and returned to tell execs it would take $35m at the box office. They laughed. No way it was doing more than $25m. But it’s on track to top $70m.
• Now marketers are kicking themselves for not spotting the opportunity, though the likes of AAMI, Chemist Warehouse, Kia, Modibodi and Nintendo are in the pink.
• Along with Oppenheimer, the ‘Barbenheimer’ phenomenon has bought lapsed cinema-goers back to the big screen. Circa 15 per cent of those attending hadn't been in at least a year, per Hoyts loyalty data.
• Now marketers are asking for the next ten incoming big hits. Keogh and Val Morgan MD, Guy Burbidge, say they know what they will be – and rattle them off.
• But Burbidge and Keogh urge brands to rethink how they approach IP and plan ahead to get the full effect.
• Meanwhile Burbidge claims its investment in attention studies and metrics are leading to “significant” revenue gains.
• Get the full download via this week's podcast.

Pink faces all round

Hoyts so-called experts didn’t see it coming. CEO Damian Keogh says he was “laughed out of the room” for suggesting Barbie would take $35m at the Australian box office. It’s on track to do double that locally, and circa $1.3bn globally. Still, it’s better to under forecast than over-forecast, he suggests. No doubt the experts are now nodding furiously.

Barbie is still powering, and has “a very good chance” of becoming one of the top five movies in Australian cinematic history. Margot Robbie, a producer as well as lead actor, is set to make a tone of money – and brands are kicking themselves for not seeing the opportunity earlier, says Keogh.

Along with Oppenheimer, “on track for at least $35 million at the Australian box office”, says Keogh, it’s a powerful start to FY24 for cinema.  Even Commbank called out the phenomenon in its latest analysis of spend data via CommbankIQ, noting spending on cinemas across its customer base “was up a massive 65 per cent in July – thanks to Barbenheimer”.

Plus, the two films have bought back lapsed audiences. Per Hoyts 2.5 million member loyalty data, circa 15 per cent of people coming to see the two films hadn’t been to the cinema for at least a year, which means advertisers across those two films got even more reach than they bargained for.

“We’ve had a couple of the biggest weeks in the history of the company,” says Keogh. “Barbie is into its fifth week and it’s still the number one movie in town. It’s hit it out of the park.”

Barbie’s audience has “skewed 70 per cent female, probably more in the under-40 demographic,” per Keogh. That’s a great demo for Val Morgan’s sales team to tout to advertisers, especially as Oppenheimer, “is pretty much the opposite”. That means Hoyts is covering key demographic bases between the two films. But he thinks blokes would definitely get something out of the former.

“If you ask guys have they seen Barbie, they kind of look at you as if to say ‘why would I do that?’” says Keogh. “But it’s an incredible piece of original content and one of the things I love is that while it’s Mattel’s IP, Will Ferrell is the President of the Mattel Corporation – and they really do take the piss out of it. It’s very brave, very original.”

Marketers miss IP trick

Val Morgan MD Guy Burbidge says the phone’s been ringing hot with advertisers belatedly trying to get in on the Barbie action. There’s probably some parallel with the Matildas phenomenon – too few brands grasped what was in front of them until it was too late.

The smart marketers that got in early on Barbie include those at Kia, Chemist Warehouse, Nintendo, Aami and Modibodi, per Burbidge.

“It’s not overcomplicated, what they were looking for is that alignment, the incremental reach and the big screen impact. But they took the jump, went in there and they are absolutely benefitting from significant over delivery.”

But Burbidge points to other brands that have leveraged the Barbie IP – Grill’d Burgers’ pink buns sold out – and thinks Barbie’s success is making brands take stock.

“It has ignited conversations about how we think about IP differently, how do we think beyond the screen and maximise all the assets available to us,” says Burbudge. “I’m hoping it really reinvigorates that IP discussion.”

What’s hot next

While the broader media market is short – and has been for years, says Burbidge, he and Keogh outline where the brands aiming to tap cinema’s upcoming slate now have time to plan. They think Barbenheimer has served as something of a wake-up call.

“Clients are already asking ‘where’s the next ten Barbies?’," says Burbidge. In terms of IP marketing opportunities, he thinks the next Minions movie – Despicable Me 4, out next year, and the next Wicked, due before Christmas, are safe bets.

IP or otherwise, Keogh suggests there’s a string of big hitters incoming – pretty much all of them bankable sequels.

“Back end of this year I’m super excited about Dune II. As we go into next year there is a really solid line-up,” says Keogh.

"In March we've got Kung Fu Panda Four coming out; A Quiet Place with Emily Blunt, which has just done great business; Godzilla vs. Kong; there's a Snow White movie in April; Lord of the Rings; Deadpool 3 with Ryan Reynolds in May. Then there’s Furiosa, which is another of the George Miller Mad Max movies which are proven box office Gold,” he adds.

That’s followed by “another Planet of the Apes movie; Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning II is out in June; Despicable Me Four; a Lion King movie; a new Captain America Marvel movie,” says Keogh. “So we're already really in for a very crowded and very positive slate for 2024.”

Naturally, he suggests brands kicking themselves for missing out on Barbie get in earlier.

Either way, Keogh says Australian cinema is on track for a billion dollar year, the first time takings will hit nine digits since 2019. While the Hollywood strikes are a cloud on the horizon for 2024 (“fingers crossed that gets sorted sooner rather than later,” per Keogh), “overall it is looking increasingly positive.”

Attention: Paying off

While the Matilda’s run to the World cup semis underlines the enduring power of sport, Val Morgan has been banging the drum for the big screen to be more accurately valued by marketers as an alternative means to tap mass cultural moments. Some, such as NRMA, are buying in, flicking sports sponsorships and recycling the budget into cinema.

Burbidge said that message is starting to land in the broader market – and he’s been pushing Val Morgan’s own research to underline it.

“We segmented over 30 case studies looking at big cultural moments versus spots and dots. And we've got data that shows – through awareness, consideration and trust – the metrics can be anywhere between upwards of 70 per cent up as high as 115 per cent versus the control, research study,” says Burbidge. “And we know where our next ten cultural moments are. So … cinema is playing that [mass cultural] role with sport.”

Combining that message with attention metrics is also starting to land in market, says Burbidge. The firm has been working with Karen Nelson-Field’s Amplified Intelligence to quantify how cinema stacks up against other media channels – and last year’s findings suggest it blows them out of the water.

Is that translating into marketers channeling more budget into cinema?

“Yes,” says Burbidge. “It's getting us on the plans in the first place. It's keeping us on the plans potentially where there's budget pressure. It's growing the size of the plans – there's more discernment about choices and platforms and formats with the information that's available through Amplified Intelligence. So it's having absolutely a significant positive effect to the business.”

Attention or otherwise, the proof is in the pudding.

“We turned the half 11 per cent up when the [ad] market was down four, overall from Jan to June. So we're pleased with that result,” says Burbidge. “But there’s definitely more to come.”